Cancer incidence in the region on track to double by 2040

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  • Swedish Institute for Health Economics and PhRMA MEA release report on World Cancer Day that explores cancer care Middle Eastern and African countries
  • Lebanon found to have the highest number of cancer cases per 100,000 of population – a fact partly attributed to it having the joint highest number of over 50-year-olds of the nine countries in the study 

Dubai, UAE, February 4, 2022: Cancer cases in the region could almost double between 2020 and 2040 if immediate action isn’t taken to address the rising trend. The finding was one of many in a major report on cancer care released today by the Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE), a globally-renowned healthcare research organisation, with Lebanon one of nine countries in the study.

Compiled in association with the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) and issued to mark this year’s World Cancer Day, IHE’s report reveals that newly diagnosed cancer cases could rise from 410,000 in 2020 to 720,000 by 2040, with population growth, an ageing society and changes in lifestyle all contributing to the disease rising faster in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) than anywhere else in the world.

Evaluating the cancer care landscape in nine countries in MEA; Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), IHE’s report takes a deep dive into four key areas of cancer control: prevention, early detection, diagnosis and treatment, and survivorship, along with a cross-cutting fifth element of governance.

Among the study’s findings were that Lebanon had the highest ‘crude rate’ of cancer of the nine countries, with the crude rate expressed by cancer incidences per 100,000 of the population. Starting from 2005, when data was first available, Lebanon recorded 200 cases per 100,000 in 2018, a figure that correlates with Lebanon having the joint highest number of over 50-year-olds in its population in  the countries surveyed, with cancer associated closely with ageing.

As well as Lebanon having the joint highest (with Morocco) number of over-50s out of the nine countries in the report, it also has a high percentage of young people compared to the global average, with 44% of Lebanon’s six million people under the age of 24.[1] The authors suggest although cancer is striking at a younger age, harnessing the potential inherent in a younger population is the key to reducing the disease burden of cancer on individuals, families and communities, as well as minimising its financial burden on national economies. 

“The number of newly diagnosed cancer cases has been increasing in all MEA countries, partly related to demographic changes and unfavourable trends in major risk factors, such as smoking and obesity. It means that cancer is set to become the number two cause of disease burden in the MEA countries. Cancer was the third-leading cause of death in the nine countries in the study in 2000 and had become the second-leading cause of death behind cardiovascular diseases in six of the nine in 2016,” said Thomas Hofmarcher, Health Economist at IHE.

“However, the MEA’s younger population could be the key to advancing efforts to create a stronger cancer care ecosystem. The region’s general demographic structure that sees a mostly constant share of the population in working age in the coming decades is conducive to building a strong economy. This demographic window of opportunity should be used to invest in cancer care, with the investment yielding health returns that reinforce the economy – a situation that results in a positive feedback loop of a healthier society and a healthier economy,” he added.

“A key finding in the IHE report was the inequity of cancer care in the MEA, with a higher healthcare invest per capita being a determinant of survival rates. We believe that there is a need for countries to invest more in their cancer care, as ultimately this will prove cost-effective from an economic perspective, not to mention reducing the disease burden for cancer patients and their families,” he continued.

Co-producer of the study, PhRMA, drew attention to the disparities in income, education and access to treatment as prime determinants of survival rates, also highlighting that discrimination based on ethnicity, gender, age, disability and lifestyle actively impacted the provision of high quality cancer care. The organisation, which represents innovative companies in the pharmaceutical industry, called for better data for policy-makers to make decisions and reiterated the economic argument for more investment in cancer care.

“Ironing out the inherent inequities in cancer care is essential to improve cancer outcomes across the Middle East and Africa, something that PhRMA is committed to achieving. In addition to creating a more egalitarian cancer care ecosystem, we need to ensure that governments and health authorities are in receipt of the latest and most accurate clinical information on which to base their policies. Cancer care decisions should be evidence-based, necessitating the generation and use of local data – something that PhRMA is striving to do by partnering with IHE on important healthcare reports such as this,” said Samir Khalil, Executive Director for PhRMA Middle East and Africa.

“In addition to the health imperative for reducing the burden of cancer, the economic imperative should not be underestimated. Just as we have seen with COVID-19’s cost to the economy, cancer also has a considerable economic impact. Early death, sick leave and the forced retirement of cancer patients who would otherwise be productive economic contributors represents a significant loss to a country, as does the removal of informal caregivers from the workforce who are forced to stay home and look after family members with cancer. We hope that this IHE report will show policy makers that not investing in cancer care has wide implications for the economy,” he added.

IHE’s report for the nine MEA countries aims to support a three-year campaign by the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC), which is being launched this year under the theme ‘Close the Care Gap.’ Recognising that there are global inequities in cancer care, UICC’s campaign commences this World Cancer Day, with year one of the campaign titled ‘Realising the Problem,’ emphasising the importance of acknowledging the inequalities of cancer care around the globe as a starting point for addressing the disease comprehensively and holistically. 

Available in English, the IHE and PhRMA report – ‘Cancer Care in the Middle East and Africa’ – will shortly be released in French. 

Summary-sheet-Lebanon


About IHE: 

The Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE) was established in Lund in 1979 as the first health economics research centre in Sweden. A pioneer in Swedish health economics for over 40 years, the centre has become established as a highly regarded research institute that specializes in health economic analysis, medical science, and statistics. With close ties to Lund University and Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm and a team of highly skilled multi-disciplinary specialists, the centre delivers premium quality research and expert consulting within the healthcare field. 

IHE contributes to informed decision-making in healthcare by bridging the gap between academia, industry, and healthcare providers. The centre works with both national and international clients representing authorities, healthcare providers, life science companies, pharmaceutical companies, branch organisations, and patient organisations. It collaborates with medical experts, researchers, and other professionals at health economic institutes, universities, and through international networks to offer its clients tailor-made and specifically targeted healthcare solutions.

About PhRMA:

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) represents the country’s leading innovative biopharmaceutical research companies, which are devoted to discovering and developing medicines that enable patients to live longer, healthier and more productive lives. Since 2000, PhRMA member companies have invested more than $1 trillion in the search for new treatments and cures, including $91.1 billion in 2020 alone.


[1] https://www.gage.odi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Adolescent-boys-and-youth-in-Lebanon.-A-review-of-the-evidence-.pdf

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