On Wednesday, June 2, 2021, an expert roundtable was held entitled “Economic Security in Lebanon” via Zoom organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the National Human Security Forum. In this panel, the resident representative of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Lebanon, Dr. Malte Gaier, gave an opening speech, followed by an intervention of the economic affairs advisor Hazar Caracalla as well as retired General Khalil Helou. The session was moderated by Dr. Khalil Jabara, Professor of Political Economy at the American University of Beirut (AUB).

Dr. Jabara opened the dialogue by pointing out the severity of the current, unprecedented crisis’ consequences on human security. Indicators are high levels of poverty and unemployment, and the repercussions on the health and education sectors. Moreover, in the absence of an authority that can deal with the situation, he pointed out the likely rise in crime and violence as a result of the crisis. Jabara mentioned the latest report issued by the World Bank, which confirmed that the GDP fell from 55 billion dollars in 2018 to 33 billion dollars in 2020, and the per capita GDP declined by 40 percent.

The Crisis Worsens
Professor Caracalla spoke about the causes of the crisis, and argued that it was primarily a financial crisis that has now taken different dimensions. It has become a liquidity crisis, an economic crisis, a social, financial and banking crisis, and it bears repercussions on the human capital and the Lebanese people. In addition, the crisis has taken an institutional dimension as institutions are now in danger.

Caracalla believes that the crisis dates back to before the “CEDRE” conference, which was meant to stimulate growth and inject liquidity into the Lebanese economy in parallel with financial, structural and sectoral reforms and measures to combat corruption. However, these reforms have not been implemented.

“We are facing a crisis of a very large size, and the numbers are shocking. In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund expected a large contraction in the GDP figures for the year 2020 by about 25 percent, which translates into a loss of income, job opportunities and sources of livelihood. Unemployment has reached more than 40 percent, more that 50 percent of the Lebanese people are below the poverty line, while the Lebanese pound has lost about 90 percent of its value, purchasing power has collapsed with the decrease of income and pensions and confidence in state institutions has become almost non-existent”, Caracalla states.

Moreover, she brought up the decline in services, the quality of services, ability to obtain them, as there is a major portion of people who she believes will no longer be able to benefit from such education and health services.

Caracalla considers that getting out of the crisis will not be easy and will take time, and that the reform options will be painful. This comes as a result of the reforms not being previously implemented at an earlier stage. There is a need for a comprehensive, undivided solution that addresses the causes of the crisis and establishes recovery and growth in the future. There is also a need to secure internal consensus on the solution through consultations that include all stakeholders. In addition, we cannot move forward without external support within the framework of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund as the implementation of the solution requires strong institutional capacity.

Preventing smuggling and protecting borders
Retired General Helou addressed the needs of the military body and the financial difficulties it is facing as a result of the crisis.  Due to the declining value of salaries, the productivity of the military and may be affected by school grants, meals, maintenance of buildings and equipment, and the process of operating machinery.

He pointed out that the army specifically receives aid from abroad in order to sustain and bear the consequences of the economic crisis and the impact it might have on the army’s level of preparedness. Helou announced that there is support for the army expected from the Arab countries in addition to a conference that will be organized by France and the United States of America to support the Lebanese army. The Lebanese army is beneficial for stability which is essential for the economy, and this is a trilogy that must be observed, taken into account and preserved. Helou considered that if a political decision was present, the army would technically be capable of monitoring the borders and preventing smuggling.

The recommendations from the session were summarized by:
1. Mobilizing external funding
2. Develop a rescue, reform and recovery plan based on restoring confidence
3. Building the capabilities of the banking sector which could play a role in revitalizing the economy
4. Addressing the debt problem, restructuring it and restoring the solvency of public finances
5. Implement structural and sectoral reforms, and mitigate the impact of reforms on the social groups that most need it by putting in place measures that enhance social protection by expanding the coverage of social safety nets
6. Providing the political decision for the army that is technically capable of protecting the borders and preventing smuggling
7. The necessity of the presence of barracks in remote areas in order to stimulate the local economy and local development
8. Benefiting in the recovery phase from the capabilities of the Works Regiment and from the military to maintain public places and in some missions in a way that saves on the public treasury

About the National Forum for Human Security
The “National Forum for Human Security” aims to strengthen partnership, exchange and coordination among stakeholders in Lebanon with the aim of quickly responding to disasters and threats to human security. The organizing body is managed by Professor of Political Science and expert in human security affairs, Dr. Imad Salamey, and coordinated by Professor of International Relations and expert in civil-military cooperation affairs Dr. Maria Njeim.

The forum organizes a series of seminars hosting experts in human and economic security.

Mirros
MIRROS est une agence de communication qui propose des services de communication et de relations media dans les secteurs de l’art, de la culture, du développement et du social. Fondée par Joumana Rizk-Yarak en 2008 à Beyrouth, l’agence offre des solutions stratégiques et créatives avec une approche personnalisée et adaptée aux demandes spécifiques de chaque institution et projet au Liban et/ou dans la région. www.mirrosme.com

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