The current events in the Holy Land are not to remind the Lebanese of bad memories. Thus, the conflict of July 2006 had already had as a prologue, clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces and fighting in Gaza before spreading to Lebanon.

This fear, in relation to a historical perspective, is therefore legitimate.

However, things in 15 years seem to have changed as well. Direct repercussions of the conflict no, consequences obviously.

After nearly a decade in the region of Israeli dominance, despite the extension of Iran towards the Eastern Mediterranean thanks to the Syrian civil war, with intervention and bombardments in Syria, the recognized annexation of Jerusalem then the Golan Heights by the United States, the opening of diplomatic relations between the Hebrew state and certain Arab countries and not the least in the Gulf, and let us pass on the rest, the very fact that before yesterday Jerusalem and that yesterday Tel Aviv, the one capital according to the Israeli authorities of their state and capital for the international community of Israel, augurs a new balance of power marked by the failure on the Israeli side, which does not seem to escape elsewhere to his American ally who seems to ask for calm instead of the use of force, a consequent change of tone from the Joe Biden era after the Donald Trump era.

Israeli F35 flying over Beirut in 2019

With major technological advances compared to its neighbors, let us mention here the very overflight by the Israeli forces of Beirut almost daily by F35s, the Israeli forces also took advantage of considerable progress in terms of missile interception.

First alert, the very fact that a Syrian surface-to-air missile fired precisely to intercept missiles from an Israeli attack in Syria could have crossed the various layers of Israeli anti-aircraft defense to crash near the Dimona nuclear power plant, located in the Negev desert, on April 22 seems to lead to certain questions around his real capacities.

Israel’s weakness was also marked by the very symbolic closure of Ben-Gurion airport. For the Lebanese, this is reminiscent of the blockade that the Israeli forces had imposed on Lebanon between July 12 until early September 2006.

The very fact in recent days that Hamas may bombard Jerusalem and then Tel Aviv with probably much less sophisticated rocket bursts also seems to confirm theinefficiency of its Iron Dome systems , despite claims on the Israeli side that it has proven its effectiveness in intercepting the vast majority of massive bursts of rockets targeting Tel Aviv and other cities and limiting human casualties to three victims for around 500 rockets. This is something not seen for 50 years, even the Lebanese Hezbollah, if it raised the threat did not do it. It would therefore seem that the Palestinian energy in the face of an almost desperate situation has a lot to do with the choice and the consequences of proceeding with this escalation.

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