La Banque du Liban a publié de nouvelles circulaire, intitulé circulaires 567 et 568, appelant notamment les personnes ayant transféré des sommes dépassant le seuil de 500 000 USD depuis la date du 1er juillet 2017 à déposer 15% de celle-ci sur un compte spécial au Liban afin d’augmenter les liquidités du marché local.
Cet appel vise notamment les dirigeants des banques libanaises, leurs principaux actionnaires et les personnes politiquement exposées.
La banque centrale appelle également les banques locales à restaurer la confiance avec les déposants en leurs permettant de disposer des sommes arrivant à maturité quel que soient les circonstances. Pour rappel, l’association des banques du Liban a unilatéralement mise en place un contrôle des capitaux de novembre 2019, suite à une pénurie importante de devises étrangères. Cependant, ce contrôle des capitaux encore aggraver la situation de bien des entreprises qui n’ont pas pu disposer librement de leur fond notamment pour commander les matières premières nécessaires à leurs activités
Cependant, en cas de levée de contrôle de capitaux, certains établissements pourraient être confrontés à une panique bancaire avec des retraits massif de liquidités de ces établissements qui serait alors en état de défaut de paiement. L’instauration d’un contrôle des capitaux visait justement éviter ce scénario.
Les nouvelles régulations instaurent également de nouveaux niveaux de ratios par rapport au risque souverain après que les autorités libanaises aient déclaré un état de défaut de paiement sur les eurobonds. Selon le texte, cet approvisionnement pourrait non plus seulement concerner les obligations en devises étrangères mais également celles libellées en devise locale, préemptant donc un possible état de défaut de paiement sur les bons du trésor.
La BDL rappelle aux établissements bancaires qu’il leur est interdit de verser de dividendes à leurs actionnaires pour l’exercice 2019 et 2020.
Par ailleurs, l’augmentation des fonds propres de 20% des banques via une augmentation du capital qui s’était achevée en juin a été repoussée au 31 décembre 2020. Désormais, les contributions pourrait être effectués via un transfert de biens immobiliers à la banque et non plus en cash seulement. Cette contribution pourrait même atteindre 50 % des 20 %.
La vente de biens immobiliers ne devrait pas aboutir au versement de dividendes mais être affecté à une réserve générale non distribuable selon les termes du texte.
Il est également interdit aux banques de distribuer des dividendes si certains ratios de solvabilité sont en dessous de certaines limites comme moins de 7 % au niveau des fonds propres les actionnaires ordinaires, moins de 10 % des fonds privés de base, encore moins de 12 % des ratios totaux des fonds privés.
Par ailleurs, la Banque du Liban appelle à ce que les établissements bancaires ne dégradent pas les clients affectés par la situation induite par l’impact économique du Coronavirus. Il s’agit notamment de ceux qui font face à des retards de paiement ou encore des dépassements de plafond.
Focus
Cependant, les experts doutent que ces mesures soit suffisantes, soulignant par ailleurs que le prix de l’immobilier au Liban est surévalué depuis de nombreuses années en raison d’un mouvement spéculatif et cela en absence d’une demande locale. Ainsi, certains actionnaires pourrait être tentés de mettre sur le compte de leurs établissements bancaires des biens immobiliers surévalués mais qui n’ont en réalité une valeur réduite.
L’autre problématique est qu’il y a aujourd’hui un grand différentiel entre les prix des biens immobiliers en dollars réels et “en dollars locaux”.
Ainsi, si un bien est immobilier était quoté à 1 000 000 de dollars avant la crise, sa valeur réelle étant surévaluée de 50% en raison de l’absence de demande locale, 26% des lots immobiliers par exemple étant vides à Beyrouth, soit à 500 000 USD en réalité, sa valeur réelle après la crise est toujours de 500 000 dollars réels.
Cependant, la valeur du bien en “dollars libanais” est de 700 000 USD en prenant en compte le risque de voir un haircut de 40% être appliqué aux comptes, même si le nombre de transactions ou encore les prix affichés ont eu tendance à augmenter ces derniers mois, beaucoup de personnes achetant des biens immobiliers pour tenter de se prémunir face à de possibles faillites de groupes bancaires.
Cette information intervient alors que de nombreux établissements éprouvent les plus grandes difficultés à augmenter leurs fonds propres et que le délai pour y procéder s’est achevé en juin dernier et qu’un rapport a été publié faisant état d’une perte de plus de 100 milliards de dollars pour le secteur financier.
Lebanon accumulates crises
Lebanon is now faced with several crises, economic crisis, crisis linked to the coronavirus, and now crisis linked to the explosion of the port of Beirut, to which is now added a political crisis due to the resignation of the Hassan Diab government .
The Land of Cedars has been without government since August 10.
For the time being, the release of international aid is conditional on the outcome of the negotiations undertaken with the IMF, which requires that the necessary reforms be put in place, particularly economic and monetary reforms. Indeed, many sources or personalities involved in the case multiply the declarations indicating that the international community will not grant “no blank check to Lebanon”, following the non-respect by Beirut of its promises and its commitment to carry out. the reforms necessary for economic recovery already at the Paris I, II and III conferences in the 2000s.
The banking sector crisis, although masked by the financial engineering operations carried out by the Banque du Liban, had started much earlier, despite the colossal profits announced by Lebanese banks until last year. In reality, the Banque du Liban thus repaid nearly 16 billion dollars between 2016 and 2018, thus emptying a large part of its monetary reserves in favor of banking establishments.
On the economic front, the crisis that began in 2018 came to light in the summer of 2019 with a shortage of foreign currency, which is nevertheless necessary for the purchase of basic necessities in particular. However, a reversal of financial flows had been observed as early as January 2019. This crisis was then accentuated following the unilateral imposition by Lebanese banks of capital controls, thus blocking access to accounts.
In addition, the deterioration of socio-economic conditions led to numerous demonstrations from October 2019, the demonstrators denouncing a political class considered as corrupt and demanding the departure.
After the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri on October 29, 2019, a new government chaired by his successor Hassan Diab was formed on January 17, 2020. As early as March, the Lebanese authorities announced a state of default on maturing Eurobonds. In addition, Lebanon has opened negotiations with the IMF with a view to obtaining economic aid of the expected amount of 10 billion dollars.
However, the negotiations, now suspended, quickly stumbled over the capacity of the Lebanese authorities to carry out the reforms necessary for the release of international aid as well as on the issue of quantifying the losses of the financial sector. The Lebanese authorities estimate that its losses would reach 241 trillion Lebanese pounds on the basis of an exchange rate of 3600 LL / USD. , that is to say approximately 80 billion dollars, which the local banks refuse via the association of the banks of Lebanon or the Bank of Lebanon itself.
The association of banks in Lebanon has thus activated its relays present in parliament. via the parliamentary finance and budget committee. The latter, where some shareholders and representatives of local banks are present, only quantified the financial losses at 81 trillion Lebanese pounds on the basis of an exchange rate of 1507 LL / USD. .
Henceforth, this encryption of the accounts of the Banque du Liban should be carried out by the firms Alvarez & Marsal for the forensic audit and by KPMG and Oliver Wyman for the normal audit . First approached to conduct the forensic audit, the Kroll cabinet, specializing in the matter was dismissed following pressure from the president of the chamber Nabih Berri, considering the company linked to the Hebrew state .
In parallel, the association of banks in Lebanon presented a rescue plan rejected by the IMF and the Lebanese authorities, providing for the sale of part of Lebanon’s gold and the fixed-term session of public goods. This plan is also rejected by specialists who believe that the sale of public goods could only be done by selling them off because of the current circumstances.
Some sources are now citing losses for the financial sector exceeding $ 100 billion, estimating that Lebanon would now require a stimulus package of 63 billion dollars but only 26 billion at most are available . According to these same sources, all Lebanese banks are now insolvent.
The economic situation has further deteriorated with the deterioration in the value of the Lebanese pound and the implementation of different exchange rates: official exchange rate at 1507 LL / USD, the so-called market exchange rate. for stockbrokers or some companies fixed by the Bank of Lebanon, today at 3,900 LL / USD and the black market exchange rate, which fluctuated until reaching 9,000 LL / USD, in June.
Finally, the explosion of the port of Beirut , which also ravaged much of the Lebanese capital, further aggravated the situation, with damage estimated at between $ 10 billion and $ 15 billion.
Thus, if the growth rate of gross domestic product is estimated at -14% before this explosion, d New estimates point to an economic recession of -24% in 2020 .
At the same time, Lebanon is also affected by the coronavirus. The measures taken by the authorities have proved to be insufficient today and the country of cedars risks losing control of the epidemic, with an almost uncontrolled increase in the number of cases, especially after the explosion of the port of Beirut. Now, current hospital capacities have been saturated for 2 weeks, also leading to an increase in the number of deaths since the end of August.
For the time being, some experts familiar with the matter note with concern that politico-economic interests are more important for certain parties than the general interest in benefiting from economic aid in the face of the crisis, to the point of estimating that traditional divisions political parties have faded from parliament in favor of the banking party and others.
Also, some of these interests would even have gone so far as to threaten a civil war if the reforms demanded by the international community were carried out. However, it remains firm on this matter.
During his trip to Lebanon on the occasion of the centenary of the proclamation of the state of Greater Lebanon, on September 1, 2020, the day after the appointment of Mustafa Adib as prime minister , the President of the French Republic would thus have handed over to the Lebanese leaders, a roadmap for the implementation of the economic reforms deemed necessary and first, a diagnosis of the losses of the Banque du Liban. This roadmap also provided for the establishment within two weeks of a government capable of carrying out these reforms. However, 15 days later, following the expiry of the allotted time, the Lebanese authorities seem to have failed to set up a new cabinet, notably following the announcement by Washington of economic sanctions targeting Ali Hassan Khalil, arms- right of Nabih Berri and former Minister of Finance, the other political parties having accepted the principle of rotation of sovereign ministerial portfolios, namely defense, interior, foreign affairs and finance.
On September 21, 2020, the President of the Republic considers that Lebanon is currently heading “to hell” due to the deterioration of social and economic conditions, further acknowledging that the reserves of the Banque du Liban – currently subsidizing the purchase of basic necessities – will be exhausted shortly.
On September 26, taking note of his failure, the prime minister-designate announced his resignation from the steps of the Baabda Palace, plunging Lebanon a little more into crisis.
For his part, the governor of the Bank of Lebanon Riad Salamé announces, in August, the end of subsidies to essential products within 2 to 3 months due to the decrease in monetary reserves of the Central Bank.
This announcement comes as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are still suspended and a forensic audit of the Banque du Liban is taking place.
Thunderclap, the firm of Alvarez & Marsal announces its withdrawal from the forensic audit procedure , November 20, 2020 after the Banque du Liban refused to answer 57% of the questions asked , under the pretext of the credit and currency code or even legislation related to banking secrecy, plunging Lebanon into uncertainty. Indeed, this audit is now considered essential for obtaining assistance from the international community. The Ministry of Finance or that of justice considered that the contract did not violate the texts in force.
In his speech on the occasion of the 77th commemoration of the independence of Lebanon, General Michel Aoun indicates that the procedure should nevertheless go to the end and therefore envisages recourse to parliament to force the Banque du Liban to comply while the governor of the Banque du Liban Riad Salamé would be in Paris in order, indicate some sources, to find an agreement with France, leader of the community international organization which remains intractable so far on the need to conduct a forensic audit of central bank accounts.
April 7, 2021, the President of the Republic General Michel Aoun publicly denounced the ill will of the Ministry of Finance Ghazi Wazni and the Governor of the Banque du Liban Riad Salamé without, however, directly naming them in the face of the various pitfalls and obstacles faced with the forensic audit of the Banque du Liban accounts and called for a meeting of the Hassan Diab government to examine this file and reveal the underside of what he almost describes. as a sabotage of the procedure.
The head of state also accused the governor of the Banque du Liban of practices contrary to local financial legislation, such as the use of private deposits as currency reserves. The President of the Republic recalled the various steps taken by certain parties to avoid this audit of the central bank. He also recalled that this procedure is not only a personal request of the Head of State but also of the international community, a prerequisite for the release of funds from CEDRE and the IMF.
In addition, in the face of the crisis, some correspondent banks of the BdL would have closed the accounts , indicates in a letter Riad Salamé.
These would include dollar accounts with Wells Fargo, sterling accounts with HSBC, Swedish krona with Danske and Canadian dollar accounts with CIBS.
According to the governor of the Banque du Liban, these decisions would be motivated by the state of default, the political campaigns targeting the Bank of Lebanon and by “the judicial outcry”, allusion to accusations of embezzlement and corruption against Riad. Salamé himself
