Le gouverneur de la Banque du Liban a réitéré son opinion selon laquelle le Liban n’est pas en faillite, estimant que les foyers libanais possèderaient plus de 10 milliards de dollars cash. Riad Salamé a également annoncé le lancement d’une crypto-monnaie libanaise en 2021.

Riad Salamé, dont le rôle à la tête de la banque centrale est très critiqué aujourd’hui, s’est ainsi défendu, estimant qu’il s’agit de mettre en place un système visant à restaurer la confiance envers les banques et à préparer une digitalisation de la circulation de l’argent d’ici 2020 sur les marchés locaux et à l’étranger. Il s’exprimait devant une délégation de l’association des déposants libanais.

Selon le responsable de la banque du Liban, la situation aurait été induite par le coronavirus dont le premier cas s’est déclaré au Liban en février 2020 et par la situation de défaut de paiement en mars 2020 ce qui aurait affecté selon lui les flux financiers entrants. il a cependant fait ainsi l’impasse sur l’inversion des flux en janvier 2019, le début de pénurie de devises étrangères en mai de cette même année ou encore à la mise en place d’un contrôle informel des capitaux par l’Association des Banques du Liban en novembre 2019.

Le Liban n’est pas en faillite, estime ainsi Riad Salamé qui met en compte les difficultés actuelles du système financier sur les crises régionales et “une campagne visant le secteur financier ainsi que l’accumulation des déficits des comptes courants ou du budget public”. Il n’a pas évoqué les opérations d’ingénieries financières qu’il a menées entre 2016 et 2018 qui ont gonflé artificiellement les profits des banques à hauteur de 16 milliards de dollars financés par les réserves monétaires de la Banque du Liban ni les pertes de la banque centrale elle-même en raison de la couteuse politique de maintien de la parité entre livre libanaise et dollar ces 25 dernières années. Ces pertes ont été maquillées par l’enregistrement de profits fiduciaires dont les montants étaient unilatéralement décidés par lui.

Ces différents aspects du dossier font actuellement l’objet d’un audit juricomptable mené à la demande du gouvernement Hassan Diab par le cabinet Alvarez & Marsal. Pour rappel, le gouverneur de la BdL n’aurait répondu qu’à 43% des questions posées par le cabinet, se réfugiant sous la législation du secret bancaire, alors que les experts juridiques estiment ce motif invalide dans le cadre actuel.

Riad Salamé a cependant reconnu qu’il existe une importante différence entre taux officiels de la livre libanaise et taux au marché.

Cependant, il estime que 90% de la monnaie en circulation aujourd’hui se fait via le système bancaire, contenant pour l’heure le taux d’inflation, semblant oublier que ce taux a toutefois atteint plus de 124% selon le ministère de l’économie.

Toujours concernant le système bancaire, ce dernier a été maintenu à flot par la Banque du Liban qui aurait fourni d’importantes sommes sous forme de prêts tant en dollars qu’en livres libanaises. Cependant, les Banques, rappelle-t-il, doivent appliquer de manière stricte les circulaires de la banque centrale.

Il s’agit pour les banques et leurs actionnaires d’augmenter les fonds propres des établissements à hauteur de 20% des fonds totaux, de permettre le retour de 15% à 30% des fonds transférés à l’étranger ou encore de 3% des fonds présents au sein de banques correspondantes. Les banques qui ne respecteront pas ces obligations pourraient être acquises par la Banque du Liban, souligne-t-il.

Cependant, une circulaire impliquant déjà une hausse du capital à 20% des fonds propres avait déjà été adoptée l’année dernière et était parvenue à expiration en juillet 2020 sans avoir eu de conséquences sur les banques jusqu’à présent, la Banque du Liban s’étant contentée de publier une nouvelle réglementation prolongeant ce délai à février 2020.

Enfin, Riad Salamé s’est prononcé, pour l’heure contre la vente de l’or détenu par la Banque du Liban, estimant qu’il s’agit d’un des seuls actifs qui peut être vendu sur les marchés étrangers en cas de “crise grave inévitable”.

Pour rappel, le plan publié par l’Association des Banques du Liban prévoit la vente ou la mise en hypothèque de l’or de la Banque du Liban pour échapper à l’annulation des actions détenues par les actionnaires actuels afin de couvrir les importantes pertes du secteur bancaire.

Lebanon accumulates crises

Lebanon is now faced with several crises, economic crisis, crisis linked to the coronavirus, and now crisis linked to the explosion of the port of Beirut, to which is now added a political crisis due to the resignation of the Hassan Diab government .

The Land of Cedars has been without government since August 10.

For the time being, the release of international aid is conditional on the outcome of the negotiations undertaken with the IMF, which requires that the necessary reforms be put in place, particularly economic and monetary reforms. Indeed, many sources or personalities involved in the case multiply the declarations indicating that the international community will not grant “no blank check to Lebanon”, following the non-respect by Beirut of its promises and its commitment to carry out. the reforms necessary for economic recovery already at the Paris I, II and III conferences in the 2000s.

The banking sector crisis, although masked by the financial engineering operations carried out by the Banque du Liban, had started much earlier, despite the colossal profits announced by Lebanese banks until last year. In reality, the Banque du Liban thus repaid nearly 16 billion dollars between 2016 and 2018, thus emptying a large part of its monetary reserves in favor of banking establishments.

On the economic front, the crisis that began in 2018 came to light in the summer of 2019 with a shortage of foreign currency, which is nevertheless necessary for the purchase of basic necessities in particular. However, a reversal of financial flows had been observed as early as January 2019. This crisis was then accentuated following the unilateral imposition by Lebanese banks of capital controls, thus blocking access to accounts.

In addition, the deterioration of socio-economic conditions led to numerous demonstrations from October 2019, the demonstrators denouncing a political class considered as corrupt and demanding the departure.

After the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri on October 29, 2019, a new government chaired by his successor Hassan Diab was formed on January 17, 2020. As early as March, the Lebanese authorities announced a state of default on maturing Eurobonds. In addition, Lebanon has opened negotiations with the IMF with a view to obtaining economic aid of the expected amount of 10 billion dollars.

However, the negotiations, now suspended, quickly stumbled over the capacity of the Lebanese authorities to carry out the reforms necessary for the release of international aid as well as on the issue of quantifying the losses of the financial sector. The Lebanese authorities estimate that its losses would reach 241 trillion Lebanese pounds on the basis of an exchange rate of 3600 LL / USD. , that is to say approximately 80 billion dollars, which the local banks refuse via the association of the banks of Lebanon or the Bank of Lebanon itself.

The association of banks in Lebanon has thus activated its relays present in parliament. via the parliamentary finance and budget committee. The latter, where some shareholders and representatives of local banks are present, only quantified the financial losses at 81 trillion Lebanese pounds on the basis of an exchange rate of 1507 LL / USD. .

Henceforth, this encryption of the accounts of the Banque du Liban should be carried out by the firms Alvarez & Marsal for the forensic audit and by KPMG and Oliver Wyman for the normal audit . First approached to conduct the forensic audit, the Kroll cabinet, specializing in the matter was dismissed following pressure from the president of the chamber Nabih Berri, considering the company linked to the Hebrew state .

In parallel, the association of banks in Lebanon presented a rescue plan rejected by the IMF and the Lebanese authorities, providing for the sale of part of Lebanon’s gold and the fixed-term session of public goods. This plan is also rejected by specialists who believe that the sale of public goods could only be done by selling them off because of the current circumstances.

Some sources are now citing losses for the financial sector exceeding $ 100 billion, estimating that Lebanon would now require a stimulus package of 63 billion dollars but only 26 billion at most are available . According to these same sources, all Lebanese banks are now insolvent.

The economic situation has further deteriorated with the deterioration in the value of the Lebanese pound and the implementation of different exchange rates: official exchange rate at 1507 LL / USD, the so-called market exchange rate. for stockbrokers or some companies fixed by the Bank of Lebanon, today at 3,900 LL / USD and the black market exchange rate, which fluctuated until reaching 9,000 LL / USD, in June.

Finally, the explosion of the port of Beirut , which also ravaged much of the Lebanese capital, further aggravated the situation, with damage estimated at between $ 10 billion and $ 15 billion.

Thus, if the growth rate of gross domestic product is estimated at -14% before this explosion, d New estimates point to an economic recession of -24% in 2020 .

At the same time, Lebanon is also affected by the coronavirus. The measures taken by the authorities have proved to be insufficient today and the country of cedars risks losing control of the epidemic, with an almost uncontrolled increase in the number of cases, especially after the explosion of the port of Beirut. Now, current hospital capacities have been saturated for 2 weeks, also leading to an increase in the number of deaths since the end of August.

For the time being, some experts familiar with the matter note with concern that politico-economic interests are more important for certain parties than the general interest in benefiting from economic aid in the face of the crisis, to the point of estimating that traditional divisions political parties have faded from parliament in favor of the banking party and others.

Also, some of these interests would even have gone so far as to threaten a civil war if the reforms demanded by the international community were carried out. However, it remains firm on this matter.

During his trip to Lebanon on the occasion of the centenary of the proclamation of the state of Greater Lebanon, on September 1, 2020, the day after the appointment of Mustafa Adib as prime minister , the President of the French Republic would thus have handed over to the Lebanese leaders, a roadmap for the implementation of the economic reforms deemed necessary and first, a diagnosis of the losses of the Banque du Liban. This roadmap also provided for the establishment within two weeks of a government capable of carrying out these reforms. However, 15 days later, following the expiry of the allotted time, the Lebanese authorities seem to have failed to set up a new cabinet, notably following the announcement by Washington of economic sanctions targeting Ali Hassan Khalil, arms- right of Nabih Berri and former Minister of Finance, the other political parties having accepted the principle of rotation of sovereign ministerial portfolios, namely defense, interior, foreign affairs and finance.

On September 21, 2020, the President of the Republic considers that Lebanon is currently heading “to hell” due to the deterioration of social and economic conditions, further acknowledging that the reserves of the Banque du Liban – currently subsidizing the purchase of basic necessities – will be exhausted shortly.

On September 26, taking note of his failure, the prime minister-designate announced his resignation from the steps of the Baabda Palace, plunging Lebanon a little more into crisis.

For his part, the governor of the Bank of Lebanon Riad Salamé announces, in August, the end of subsidies to essential products within 2 to 3 months due to the decrease in monetary reserves of the Central Bank.

This announcement comes as negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are still suspended and a forensic audit of the Banque du Liban is taking place.

Thunderclap, the firm of Alvarez & Marsal announces its withdrawal from the forensic audit procedure , November 20, 2020 after the Banque du Liban refused to answer 57% of the questions asked , under the pretext of the credit and currency code or even legislation related to banking secrecy, plunging Lebanon into uncertainty. Indeed, this audit is now considered essential for obtaining assistance from the international community. The Ministry of Finance or that of justice considered that the contract did not violate the texts in force.

In his speech on the occasion of the 77th commemoration of the independence of Lebanon, General Michel Aoun indicates that the procedure should nevertheless go to the end and therefore envisages recourse to parliament to force the Banque du Liban to comply while the governor of the Banque du Liban Riad Salamé would be in Paris in order, indicate some sources, to find an agreement with France, leader of the community international organization which remains intractable so far on the need to conduct a forensic audit of central bank accounts.

April 7, 2021, the President of the Republic General Michel Aoun publicly denounced the ill will of the Ministry of Finance Ghazi Wazni and the Governor of the Banque du Liban Riad Salamé without, however, directly naming them in the face of the various pitfalls and obstacles faced with the forensic audit of the Banque du Liban accounts and called for a meeting of the Hassan Diab government to examine this file and reveal the underside of what he almost describes. as a sabotage of the procedure.

The head of state also accused the governor of the Banque du Liban of practices contrary to local financial legislation, such as the use of private deposits as currency reserves. The President of the Republic recalled the various steps taken by certain parties to avoid this audit of the central bank. He also recalled that this procedure is not only a personal request of the Head of State but also of the international community, a prerequisite for the release of funds from CEDRE and the IMF.

In addition, in the face of the crisis, some correspondent banks of the BdL would have closed the accounts , indicates in a letter Riad Salamé.

These would include dollar accounts with Wells Fargo, sterling accounts with HSBC, Swedish krona with Danske and Canadian dollar accounts with CIBS.
According to the governor of the Banque du Liban, these decisions would be motivated by the state of default, the political campaigns targeting the Bank of Lebanon and by “the judicial outcry”, allusion to accusations of embezzlement and corruption against Riad. Salamé himself

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