Israel, Iran, Arab world: regional explosion continues to expand

Israel: Alerted, but engaged on several fronts

In Israel, the situation remains that of a countryon extended alert. The shootings and interceptions related to the Iranian strikes have continued to roar over the last night, with sirens and interceptions visible over Israeli areas. At the same time, the Israeli army continues its action in several theatres at once:Iran, Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. Reuters noted in recent days that the Hebrew state used lethal force on all these fronts in a context of regional escalation.

On the Palestinian front, tension remains very strong inOccupied West Bank. Reuters reports this 15 March thatfour Palestinians, including one father, one mother and two childrenwere killed by Israeli forces in the village of Tammun, while another Palestinian was killed in an attack attributed to settlers during the night. The Israeli army reported examining the facts. This shows that beyond direct confrontation with Iran,the West Bank remains a home of acute violence.

At the strategic level, Israel also remains committed toan open war against Iranwhile continuing its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Reuters points out that the country now acts in a regional campaign logic, not a limited conflict. For Israel, the immediate challenge is twofold:hold its internal front under missiles and maintain an external action capabilityon several terrains simultaneously.

Iran: Military escalation and pressure on the Strait of Ormuz

In Iran, the line of power remains unchanged this morning:no pre-stop de-escalation of American and Israeli strikes. Reuters reported on 14 March that attempts to mediate, including byOman and Egyptwere engaged, but were faced with Iranian refusal to discuss as long as the bombing continued. Ceasefire efforts are therefore, at this stage, blocked.

The most sensitive point is nowthe Strait of Ormuz. Reuters reports March 15 that Donald Trump threatened new strikes againstKharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, while calling on allies to help secure the Strait. In response, Tehran promisedto intensify its reprisalsand continues to agitate the threat of a sustainable disruption of regional energy traffic. Reuters reminds thatone-fifth of world liquefied oil and natural gasnormally transit through this area, giving the crisis an immediate global reach.

The human and political cost of the war is also increasing on the Iranian side. Reuters already evokesmore than 2,000 deaths, mostly Iranian, since the outbreak of this war on February 28. Iran is therefore seeking to show that it retains its ability to strike against Israel, against American interests and, potentially, against the Gulf energy circuits. But this strategy also increases its isolation and poses a major risk to neighbouring Arab countries, which Tehran says do not want to target directly while placing them objectively in the zone of shock of the conflict.

The Arab world: between front lines, fear of explosion and diplomatic paralysis

In theArab worldThe situation is dominated by three realities. The first is thatLebanon remains one of the main battlefieldsregional climbing. Reuters reported on 14 March that contacts for discussions between Israel and Lebanon were envisaged, but at the same time the war with Hezbollah continues, with hundreds of deaths, massive displacements and direct threats to ambulances, health centres and Beirut.

The second reality concerns theGulf monarchies. They are not officially parties to the conflict, but live under the direct threat of Iranian reprisals. Reuters has already documented attacks of Iranian missiles and drones on several Gulf states at the beginning of the escalation, as well as the destruction or interceptions recorded inBahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Riyadh warned Tehran that a new attack could lead to a response. The priority of the Gulf capitals is now clear:avoid being dragged further into a war they are already suffering by ricochet.

The third reality is diplomatic.Egypt and OmanStill trying to play a mediation role, but without tangible results for now. At the same time, Iraq suffers from regional disruptions: Reuters reported yesterday that the closure of airspace and traffic difficulties made international sports trips even more difficult. This illustrates a broader fact:Iran-Israel war now destabilizes all Arab regional architectureincluding countries that do not fight directly.

Gaza, Syria, Yemen: households still active but relegated to the Iran-Israel war

ToGazaWar did not disappear from the regional equation. Reuters recalled on 13 March that Israeli strikes had again killed several Palestinians, while violence was continuing in the West Bank. Gaza is no longer the only centre of the conflict, but it remains an active home in a much larger whole.

InSyriaThe tempo is less that of an immediate outbreak than of a politico-military recomposition. Reuters recently reported the appointment of Kurdish commander Sipan Hamo as Deputy Minister of Defence for the eastern Syrian region, a sign that Damascus is trying to consolidate the security apparatus in a highly unstable regional environment. The country therefore remains vulnerable, even if the news this morning is less hot than in Lebanon or the Gulf.

ToYemenFor the time being, the Houthis appear in political support for Iran, but Reuters reported on 14 March, via Hamas’ position, that they had not yet relaunched an open campaign comparable to that carried out in the Red Sea during the Gaza war. This does not mean lasting appeasement: it means above all that this morning,the regional centre of gravity lies between Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the GulfMore than in Sanaa.