After the decision yesterday of the Shoura Council to suspend circular 151 of the Banque du Liban which had established an exchange rate of 3,900 LL / USD last October in the event of withdrawal from dollar accounts and demanded payment in foreign currency, Lebanese banks and their leaders are said to be worried about this decision, which could lead to the bankruptcy of their establishments and the sequestration of their personal property.
Some institutions have thus suspended all operations pending the official position of the Banque du Liban.
As a reminder, no appeal of this decision is possible. The Banque du Liban is expected to specify in the coming days the procedures announcing the cancellation of this circular and the establishment of a new mechanism for withdrawing funds. Thus, the most likely hypothesis would be that banks can allow the withdrawal of small amounts in dollars, which is difficult however due to the insolvency of several large establishments.
Another possibility is payment up to the official parity in the event of withdrawal, ie 1,507 LL / USD. However, this measure could also be faced with appeals before the Lebanese justice or at a rate at the discretion of the client. This measure could lead to formalize consequently an uncontrolled discount of dollar accounts.
A last possibility and not the least would be to recognize the bankruptcy of the banks and therefore lead to the liquidation of a large part of the current establishments. In such a scenario, the managers of these banks as well as the main shareholders could see their personal assets be seized by justice in order to repay the debts of these banking establishments.
However, the assets of banking institutions themselves could be overvalued compared to the reality of the market already before the crisis. Some sources estimate that there is a difference of 25% or even more between the book value of these goods and the real market value. As for the existing capital, in spite of an increase carried out not long ago, it would have already evaporated because of the crisis which the Country of the Cedars is going through.
As a reminder, total deposits with Lebanese banks reach 148.65 billion dollars according to the latest figures published by the Bank of Lebanon, of which 83% in approximately dollars.
Banks already considered insolvent in report released last year
Le rapport publié en 2020 par la Foundation for Defense of Democracies et intitulé Crisis in Lebanon, Anatomy of a financial Collapse estime toutes les banques libanaises étudiées comme étant insolvables. Elles sont également menacées par des procédures judiciaires, accusées de blanchiment d’argent et en raison du lien de certains établissements avec le Hezbollah aux USA.
• Bank Audi S.A.L.
• Bank of Beirut S.A.L.
• Bank of Beirut and the Arab Countries S.A.L.
• Bankmed S.A.L.
• Banque Libano-Française S.A.L.
• BLOM Bank S.A.L.
• Byblos Bank S.A.L.
• Crédit Libanais S.A.L.
• Fenicia Bank S.A.L.
• Fransabank S.A.L.
• IBL Bank S.A.L.
• Lebanon and Gulf Bank S.A.L.
• MEAB Bank S.A.L.
• Société Générale de Banque au Liban S.A.L.
Parmi les banques citées:
Au total, les 14 banques prises en compte nécessiteraient un apport de 67 milliards de dollars, ce qui est bien éloigné des sommes maximales que le Liban pourrait obtenir dans le cadre d’une aide internationale, soit 26 milliards de dollars (15 milliards de dollars de prêts via le FMI et 11 milliards de dollars via CEDRE à condition de mettre en place les réformes économiques, monétaires et financières nécessaires pour les débloquer).
Selon les calculs effectués par un expert étranger, tous les établissements nécessiteraient des injections massives de fonds, allant jusqu’à 11.9 milliards de dollars pour la BLOM seulement, suivie de 11 milliards de dollars pour la Banque Audi, des sommes aujourd’hui impossibles à trouver au Liban même. Le risque de faillite ou encore de shutdown complet est donc présent pour ces établissements avec d’importantes pertes pour les actionnaires actuels.
Ils ne pourraient survivre qu’à condition de fusionner ou encore de procéder à des haircuts sur les dépôts.
