Fitch Solutions believes that the deterioration of social and economic conditions could increase security challenges, especially for companies. According to the cabinet, violent demonstrations could soon take place and thus threaten the property and the personnel of local companies which would be tempted to relocate their activities to safer countries like Jordan.
Extensive security measures and expensive insurance, which undermines business confidence and hampers investment, are also said to be likely to hurt local economic activity. Fitch Solutions notes, however, that while domestic demand for defense equipment is strong, financing such goods is difficult due to current banking difficulties. On the public service side, the financing of the security forces is also made difficult because of the public debt.
In terms of security, Lebanon would thus obtain a score of 32.8 out of 100 on the crime and security risk index, placing it 14th out of 18 states in the MENA region and 164th out of 201 markets around the world.
This information comes at a time when multiple sources report a great difficulty for the intelligence services to finance themselves. Nearly 3,000 soldiers would have deserted the ranks, while the Lebanese Army – which has 80,000 men – would have called on its soldiers to take several jobs, the deterioration of the parity of the Lebanese pound against the dollar having brought the balance of the soldiers less than $ 20 versus $ 450 2 years earlier.
Thus, many states have also offered humanitarian aid to Lebanese soldiers, particularly in the form of food rations such as France, Qatar and Jordan in recent months. Financial aid from the United States and even now mentioned in the context of support for the institution, considered as one of the few not to suffer from the corruption that plagues local public institutions.